In short: Cal Poly FCS college football, 2026 season: 4-6 (Big Sky). Last game: L 7-61 vs Montana St. on October 31, 2026. Next: vs Northern Ariz., November 7, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, the CFB Pirate rating and projections.
The turnover battle could decide Cal Poly's next game, against Northern Ariz., and the recent returns favor Northern Ariz.. Cal Poly committed 0.8 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #16 in FCS in that timeframe. In the 6 games since that hot start (2-4), the Mustangs have committed 2.7 giveaways per game, a 256% rise, #127 in FCS in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.4 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.4 per game), Cal Poly turned it over 85% more than those defenses usually force. Meanwhile, Northern Ariz.'s defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Lumberjacks have forced 1.3 takeaways per game over their last 6 games (5-1), #75 in FCS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in FCS (1.4 per game on the season, which would rank #66). Northern Ariz. offers Cal Poly a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
The number to watch when Cal Poly meets Northern Ariz. is Cal Poly's run defense. Cal Poly allowed 4.2 yards per carry (1,160 yards on 278 rushes) over its first 7 games (4-3), #47 in FCS through those games. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Mustangs have allowed 6.3 yards per carry (692 yards on 109 rushes), a 52% rise, #126 in FCS through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Cal Poly's last 3 opponents have averaged 4.8 yards per carry, a #33 rushing attack in FCS on the season, against 4.4 yards per carry, #55 for the first 7. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.8 yards per carry), Cal Poly allowed 33% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. Conversely, Northern Ariz.'s ground game has been one of FCS's better units in recent weeks. The Lumberjacks have averaged 5.7 yards per carry (512 yards on 90 rushes) over their last 3 games (3-0), #19 in FCS over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker run defenses in FCS (4.9 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #94). Against those norms, Northern Ariz. ran for 15% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. Unless Cal Poly's run defense rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Northern Ariz.. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Northern Ariz. the edge: Cal Poly's front grades -1.3 against Northern Ariz.'s offensive line at +3.0 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
NOTES
The biggest worry in Cal Poly's season has been the direction of its ground game. Cal Poly averaged 5.1 yards per carry (1,148 yards on 227 rushes) over its first 6 games (3-3), #27 in FCS within that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Mustangs have averaged 3.0 yards per carry (389 yards on 128 rushes), a 40% drop, #116 in FCS across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Cal Poly's last 4 opponents have averaged 4.5 yards per carry, a #65 run defense in FCS on the season, against 5.4 yards per carry, #114 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.5 yards per carry), Cal Poly ran for 32% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. On the season, Cal Poly ranks #58 in FCS in rushing. Northern Ariz.'s run defense, #98 of 129 (5.1 yards per carry), could be the get-right matchup Cal Poly needs. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Cal Poly the edge: Cal Poly's offensive line grades +0.9 against Northern Ariz.'s front at -3.6 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
Cal Poly's defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Mustangs allowed 29.2 points per game over their first 5 games (3-2), #64 in FCS during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), Cal Poly has allowed 39.6 points per game, a 36% rise, #118 in FCS during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 30.2 points per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (30.5 points per game), Cal Poly allowed 30% more than those offenses usually score. On the season, the Mustangs rank #103 in FCS in scoring defense. It won't get any easier against Northern Ariz., whose offense ranks #31 in FCS (31.9 points per game). Cal Poly is 3-2 this season when it holds opponents under 32, and 1-4 when it doesn't.
Something changed for Cal Poly's offense after the first 6 games of the season. Cal Poly averaged 30.3 points per game over its first 6 games (3-3), #37 in FCS during that stretch. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Mustangs have averaged 19.0 points per game, a 37% drop, #99 in FCS over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Cal Poly's last 4 opponents have averaged 26.7 points per game, a #59 scoring defense in FCS on the season, against 32.0 points per game, #95 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (26.7 points per game), Cal Poly scored 29% less than those defenses usually allow. On the season, Cal Poly ranks #56 in FCS in scoring. Northern Ariz.'s defense sits in the middle of the pack, #83 in FCS (29.8 points per game). Cal Poly is 2-2 this season when it scores 30 or more, and 2-4 when it doesn't.
One of Cal Poly's shakiest areas lately has been its third-down offense. The Mustangs converted 46.3% of third downs (25-for-54) over their first 4 games (2-2), #18 in FCS over that timeframe. In the 6 games since that hot start (2-4), Cal Poly has converted 31.9% of third downs (22-for-69), a 31% drop, #111 in FCS over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 41.2% on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (40.5%), Cal Poly converted third downs 21% less often than those defenses usually allow. On the season, the Mustangs rank #67 in FCS in third-down offense. Northern Ariz.'s third-down defense, #123 of 129 (48.5%), could be the get-right matchup Cal Poly needs.
Cal Poly allowed touchdowns on 62.5% of opponents' red-zone trips (15 of 24) over its first 6 games (3-3), #84 in FCS in that timeframe. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Mustangs have allowed touchdowns on 46.2% of opponents' red-zone trips (6 of 13), a 26% drop, #33 in FCS in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 53% on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (51%), Cal Poly held those offenses 9% below their usual red-zone touchdown rate. On the season, Cal Poly ranks #64 in FCS in red-zone defense. Northern Ariz.'s red-zone offense sits in the middle of the pack, #36 in FCS (61.3%).
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Cal Poly has played a tougher-than-average schedule in the pool so far (#23 of 130), and what is left is one of the toughest slates (#13 of 129).
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#23 of 130
avg opponent rating +19.2 over 10 games · 4 vs top-25 FCS
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#13 of 129
avg opponent rating +23.4 over 2 games · 2 vs top-25
Idaho W 38-34Central … W 24-17@San Jose… L 20-30San Diego L 35-38@Eastern … W 31-27Weber St. L 34-42@Idaho St. W 25-24@Northern… L 18-28Utah Tech L 26-43@Montana … L 7-61Northern…@Uc Davis
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 31 game; last updated Nov 1; roster and numbers checked Sep 17.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 62.5/100 (+16 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 28.3/100 (-40 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 25.3/100 (+32 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 27.6/100 (+37 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-11-07
vs
NORTHERN ARIZ.
7-2
31.9
2026-11-21
at
UC DAVIS
5-4
30.0
LAST YEAR
CP finished 2025 at 4-8. Made the playoffs (2 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 56-7 over WESTERN ORE. (WESTERN ORE. finished 73% that season). Toughest loss: 35-40 to PORTLAND ST. (5-point margin).
• [CLUB] Cal Poly has lost 3 straight, and a loss would make it 4 in a row. The last time they lost 4 or more in a row was 2025, a run of 6.
• [CLUB] Cal Poly has gone 10 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers (August 28, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 4-6 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (26 games).
• [CLUB] Cal Poly has gone 6 straight games being held under 7.0 yards per play (September 26, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 2-4 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2024 (12 games).
• [CLUB] Cal Poly has gone 5 straight games being held under 5.0 yards per carry (October 3, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 1-4 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2024 (6 games).
• [CLUB] Cal Poly has gone 5 straight games allowing 100+ rushing yards (October 3, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 1-4 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (8 games).
• [PLAYER] Jaden Green has 551 rushing yards over his last 4 games (137.8 a game, September 26, 2026 through October 17, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Tayvion Mccoy has 259 receiving yards over his last 3 games (86.3 a game, October 17, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Bo Kelly has gone 2 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the 3rd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 3 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, during the 2023 season.
• [PLAYER] Mikey D'amato has gone 2 straight games making 10 or more tackles, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 8 straight games making 10 or more tackles, during the 2026 season.
• [PLAYER] Misa Paiau has never had a game rushing for 100+ yards for Cal Poly, over a 20-game career on record. His career high is 70, set October 31, 2026 against Montana St. (L, 7-61).
• [PLAYER] Bo Kelly has gone 6 straight games without throwing for 200+ yards. The last time he threw for 200+ yards was October 4, 2025 against Uc Davis (L, 27-34) — 251 passing yards.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
CP HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• CP holds its opponents under 100 rushing yards (.778), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• CP holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.515), but most recently lost to Utah Tech when doing so
• CP forces 3+ takeaways (.714), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• CP averages 6.0+ yards per play (.600), but most recently lost to Northern Colo. when doing so
• CP's offense has averaged 4.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 75-game average is 1.8 giveaways per game. (+127%)
• CP's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 75-game average is 1.4 takeaways per game. (-51%)
• CP's offense has failed to reach 5.0 YPC in 5 straight games (10/03/2026-10/31/2026), going 1-4 over that stretch.
• CP's offense has failed to reach 150 rush yds in 4 straight games (10/10/2026-10/31/2026), going 1-3 over that stretch.
• CP rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards
• CP holds its opponents under 6.4 yards per play (CP's own median) (.459)
• CP holds its opponents under 179.0 rushing yards (CP's own median) (.459)
• CP's offense has averaged 91.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 75-game average is 136.1 rush yards per game. (-33%)
• CP holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry (CP's own median) (.457)
• CP's offense has committed 1+ turnover in 3 straight games (10/17/2026-10/31/2026), going 0-3 over that stretch.
• CP's offense has committed 2+ turnovers in 3 straight games (10/17/2026-10/31/2026), going 0-3 over that stretch.
• CAL POLY has committed 2+ turnovers in 3 straight games (10/17/26–10/31/26). It has not committed 2+ turnovers in 4 straight since 10/21/23–8/31/24 (2024).
• CAL POLY has lost 3 straight (10/17/26–10/31/26). It has not lost 4 straight since 10/4/25–11/15/25 (2025). It has reached 4 straight 4 times in the last 4 years and has lost a high of 6 straight (2025) in that span.
• CAL POLY has allowed 30+ in 2 straight games (10/24/26–10/31/26). It has not allowed 30+ in 3 straight since 11/15/25–8/28/26 (2026). It has reached 3 straight 4 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 5 straight (2024) in that span.
CP's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 75-game average is 1.4 takeaways per game. (-51%)
CP's defense has averaged 44.0 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 74-game average is 34.6 points allowed per game. (+27%)
CP's defense has averaged 6.3 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 75-game average is 5.0 YPC. (+26%)
CP's defense has averaged 195.3 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 75-game average is 247.4 pass yards per game. (-21%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where CAL POLY sits among 130 FCS teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 45.5, Defense Grade 26.6.
TURNOVER MARGIN / GAME: CAL POLY VS THE FCS
CAL POLY ranks #112 of 130 FCS teams in turnover margin per game (-0.80) -- a weakness worth a look.
CAL POLY: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 4 seasons on file -- -12.4 in 2022 to -2.4 in 2025.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
2.48 points per offensive possession (120 possessions on file, 2026)
Late & close (4th quarter or later, within one score): 45.7% success rate, 18.6% explosive play rate (129 snaps)
Down & Distance
Plays
Play-Type Mix
1 & short
5
rush 80%, pass 20%
1 & medium
8
rush 75%, pass 25%
1 & long
281
rush 58%, pass 40%, sack 2%
2 & short
36
rush 69%, pass 28%, sack 3%
2 & medium
62
rush 69%, pass 31%
2 & long
115
pass 61%, rush 37%, sack 3%
3 & short
32
rush 81%, pass 16%, sack 3%
3 & medium
45
pass 73%, rush 18%, sack 9%
3 & long
57
pass 79%, rush 12%, sack 9%
4 & short
9
rush 67%, pass 33%
4 & medium
9
pass 100%
4 & long
7
pass 86%, rush 14%
GARBAGE TIME PROFILE
1 of 9 games on file this season hit garbage time
Average margin: -3.3 final vs. -3.3 before garbage time — this team plays about as close as the scoreboard shows (+0.0 pts/game)
Biggest swing: 0 points, vs. Utah Tech on 2026-10-24 (-17 final, -17 real)
See the Garbage Time Reality Check page for the full leaderboard. This is informational only — it never changes this team's ranking or projection elsewhere on the site.
The same down-based success standard as passing success rate, applied to a player's carries.
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the ball carrier.
Receiving Success Rate
The same down-based success standard, applied to a player's targets (thrown to him, complete or not).
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the targeted receiver.
3rd Down Splits
How a player performed specifically on 3rd down plays this season -- success rate, touchdown rate, and the underlying counting stats, isolated from every other down.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 3 and this player was involved (passer, rusher, receiver, or a tackle/sack/INT/fumble recovery on defense).
4th Down Splits
The same idea as 3rd Down Splits, isolated to 4th down plays -- the highest-leverage down in football.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 4 and this player was involved.
Red Zone Splits
How a player performed once his team's offense (or the opponent's, for a defender) reached inside the 20-yard line.
Inputs: Every play on file within 20 yards of the goal line (`distance_to_goal <= 20`) this player was involved in. COVERAGE CAVEAT: true field position is only recorded for about a third of plays leaguewide, concentrated in FBS/FCS games -- a player whose games come from a source without it will show thin or missing red-zone splits even if he played plenty of red-zone snaps. This is a gap in the underlying play-by-play data, not a sign he didn't play there.
Final 2 Minutes of a Half
How a player performed in the last two minutes of either half -- the clock-management, high-pressure stretch at the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters.
Inputs: Every play on file in the 2nd or 4th quarter with 2:00 or less on the clock this player was involved in. Same field-position/clock coverage caveat as Red Zone Splits above -- roughly a third of plays leaguewide carry a usable clock reading, concentrated in FBS/FCS games.
What is "garbage time"?
A 7-tier rule (bigger lead required as the clock runs down) that flags plays happening in a game that is no longer competitive -- e.g. a 30+ point lead right after halftime, or a 12+ point lead inside the final 3 minutes.
Inputs: Quarter, game clock, and the score of both teams at the time of the play. Garbage-time plays are not thrown out -- they count for 35% of a normal play in every "garbage-time-adjusted" figure, so a player who pads stats once a game is decided shows up as such rather than being invisible.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED
11/07/2026 02:13
